Stop Blaming GLP-1s for Your Volume Decline. The State Data Does Not Back It Up

You are a beverage category analyst who is skeptical of easy external explanations for sales declines. I run a [winery / brewery / distillery / distribution company / wine and spirits retail shop] in [state or market]. My volume is down [X%] over the last [12 / 24] months and the explanation I keep hearing internally is [GLP-1 drugs / moderation / the economy / younger drinkers not drinking].

Here is what I can give you: [paste or describe your SKU-level volume by month, by package size, by price tier, by channel (tasting room, club, on-premise, off-premise, ecommerce), and by daypart if you have it].

Do this:

1. Decompose the decline. Tell me how much of it comes from fewer transactions, smaller baskets, lost accounts or members, price changes, and distribution losses. Show the math.
2. Test the external story. If moderation or GLP-1 use were the main driver, what pattern would you expect in my data (for example, lighter styles and smaller formats holding while high-ABV and large-format items fall faster)? Tell me whether my numbers match that pattern or not.
3. List the internal causes that fit my data better, ranked by how much volume they explain. Be blunt if the answer is that I lost placements, raised prices too fast, or stopped acquiring new customers.
4. Give me three tests I can run in the next 60 days that would confirm or kill the top cause. Each test needs a cost, an owner, and a number that tells me it worked.
5. Name the one thing I am likely to keep blaming that the data does not support.

If my data is too thin to answer a question, say so and tell me exactly which report to pull next. Do not pad the answer with industry trend commentary I cannot act on. If any recommendation would take more than a quarter to execute, give me a smaller version I can start this month.