Is GLP-1 really killing your sales volume?
Plus the distributor clause to write this week, and Constellation's $75M SpikedAde buy.
Jeremy Young5 min read
Today's Alcohol Industry Insider Newsletter
What's inside:
🔠Industry Opportunities Worth Watching: Claim a new AVA's story before the TTB approves it
🔠Industry Opportunities Worth Watching: Put Shelf Placement in Writing Before Your Next Distributor Review
💡 AI Prompts You Can Use: Turn one bottle photo into a season of lifestyle images with Gemini
💸 Money Moves: Constellation pays $75 million for SpikedAde as distribution deals come apart
🥊 Wrong Take: Stop Blaming GLP-1s for Your Volume Decline. The State Data Does Not Back It Up
Claim a new AVA's story before the TTB approves it
SevenFifty Daily published a rundown of seven proposed AVAs working through the TTB: Annapolis-Sea Ranch and Lake Hennessey in California, Deschutes River and The Dalles in Oregon, Hunterdon Hills in New Jersey, Niagara Lake Plain in New York, and Minnesota's Glacial Ridge. The documented numbers are the interesting part. Annapolis-Sea Ranch covers 26,637 acres with 651 acres of vines across a dozen vineyards. Lake Hennessey has roughly 355 planted acres. Deschutes River lists five wineries and eight growers on 77 acres. Glacial Ridge spans more than a million acres with 55 acres planted. Niagara Lake Plain has eight wineries on about 340 acres.
The cause is straightforward: an AVA gives a region a legal name for what makes it different, and the article notes approval can take several years. The likely consequence, and this is my inference rather than anything in the data, is that the producers who show up with finished language, maps, and photography on approval day get written about first. Everyone else becomes a footnote in someone else's region.
The opening is widest for the small producers already inside these boundaries, because the supply pool is tiny enough to sell scarcity honestly. A retail shop can build a "regions you have not heard of yet" set around Hunterdon Hills Riesling, Albariño, and Blaufränkisch, or Niagara Lake Plain Cabernet Franc and Saperavi. A distributor rep can ask portfolio managers what they carry from these areas now, while placement is cheap. Breweries and distilleries near these zones can tie tourism packages to a region about to get a name.
Write the regional story this month, before the approval, not after. One page: soils, climate, elevation, the varieties that work, and why the wine tastes the way it does. Then hand it to every buyer, writer, and somm who will take it.
You are a wine trade storyteller who writes regional positioning for small producers. I need a one-page story for a proposed AVA that has not been approved yet, written for buyers, sommeliers, and wine writers.
My situation:
- Proposed AVA: [NAME, e.g., Hunterdon Hills, New Jersey]
- My business: [e.g., 3,000-case winery with 14 estate acres / independent retail shop in Philadelphia / distributor rep covering upstate New York]
- Documented facts I can support: [paste only verified details: total acres, planted acres, number of vineyards or wineries, elevation range, soil types, climate notes, main varieties]
- Wines I actually have to sell from the area: [list with prices and case counts]
- Audience: [on-premise buyers / retail buyers / local press / tasting room guests]
Produce:
1. A 150-word region description in plain language. Lead with what the place does to the wine, not the geology lecture.
2. Three trade talking points a somm could repeat from memory after one read.
3. One shelf talker under 40 words.
4. A 120-word email pitching a by-the-glass or shelf placement, framed around scarcity and discovery.
5. A short list of what I still need to gather (photos, maps, harvest data) before approval.
Rules: use only the facts I gave you. If a claim needs data I did not provide, flag it in brackets as [NEEDS SOURCE] instead of filling it in. Do not invent acreage, scores, or quotes. No tasting notes longer than one line. If the story sounds like every other region's story, tell me so and rewrite it sharper.
Put Shelf Placement in Writing Before Your Next Distributor Review
California is investigating Southern Glazer's after federal authorities concluded the largest wholesaler in the United States ran a multi-year scheme to bribe grocery stores to carry certain products it distributes. Tom Wark reports in Fermentation, citing the San Francisco Chronicle, that similar schemes were previously found in New York and Pennsylvania. Wark, Executive Director of the National Association of Wine Retailers, says he cannot think of a single instance where a producer, wholesaler, or retailer actually lost its permit to operate over wrongdoing, even though every state has boards with that power.
That part is documented. The likely consequence is inference, so treat it as my read: enforcement is not going to change who gets chain shelf space, and a wholesaler that large keeps operating on roughly the same terms it does today.
The opening is for anyone who has been funding chain placement they cannot verify. If you are a winery or distillery under 20,000 cases, or a brewery outside your home market, the chain set was probably never a fair fight, and the dollars you spend chasing it buy more in channels you can audit: on-premise by-the-glass, independent retail, and your own DTC list. Independent wine and spirits shops get a sharper story here too, built on a shelf that reflects what the owner tasted and chose.
The move for this month: pull your last 12 months of bill-backs, depletion allowances, and marketing funds by account. Ask your distributor to name the specific accounts each dollar bought and show the depletions that followed. Then write three things into your next agreement: named target accounts with dates, monthly depletion reporting by account, and a clean termination trigger if those targets are missed two quarters running. Bring that list to your next review rather than waiting for a regulator to create leverage for you.
You are my distributor accountability analyst. I am a [winery / brewery / distillery] producing [annual case or barrel volume] in [state], and I am preparing for a review with [distributor name] covering [market or markets].
Here is my situation:
- Annual spend with this distributor on bill-backs, depletion allowances, samples, and marketing funds: [$ amount, or paste the line items]
- Accounts I believe that money supported: [list what you know, or write "unknown"]
- My depletion trend over the last 12 months: [cases or % change]
- My top three target accounts for the next 12 months: [list them]
- My walk-away point: [the minimum performance or the maximum spend before I pull the brand]
Produce the following:
1. A spend audit worksheet: the exact questions I should ask to trace each dollar of bill-back and marketing spend to a named account and a measurable result. Flag any category where I am paying for something I cannot verify.
2. Ten questions for the review meeting, ordered from easy to uncomfortable, written the way an owner would actually say them out loud. No legal jargon.
3. Three contract terms I should ask for in writing: named target accounts with dates, a depletion reporting format and frequency, and a termination or market-reversion trigger. Write each one in one or two plain sentences I could hand to my attorney.
4. The trade I should offer in exchange for each term (staff education, winemaker or distiller visits, library or limited allocation, ride-with days), with my realistic cost for each.
5. A reallocation plan: if I pulled [25%] of this spend out of chain placement, show me three places to redeploy it (on-premise by-the-glass, independent retail, DTC acquisition) with what I should expect from each and how I would measure it in 90 days.
Push back on me. If my spend is small enough that I have no real standing to demand reporting, say so plainly and tell me what to do instead. If any answer requires national chain budgets I do not have, say so rather than guessing.
Turn one bottle photo into a season of lifestyle images with Gemini
Outcome: 12 lifestyle images of one product, built around a single season's occasions, sized for your website, email header, and social feed.
This replaces the shoot you keep postponing. A winery gets patio, picnic, and oyster-bar scenes for a new white. A brewery gets tailgate, fire pit, and post-hike shots of the same can. A distillery gets a bar cart, a holiday table, and a back-porch pour from one bottle photo. A retail shop can build a seasonal endcap graphic and staff-pick posts without borrowing supplier assets. A distributor rep can hand accounts ready-made creative for a brand they are trying to place, which makes the pitch easier to say yes to.
Tool: Google Gemini (gemini.google.com or the Gemini app). Image generation and editing are included on the free plan, checked October 12, 2026. Difficulty: Advanced, because you upload a photo and run the prompt in rounds.
Setup takes two minutes. Prepare one clean, well-lit photo of the bottle or can, straight on, with the label readable. Have your brand colors and two or three words for your brand's look ready. Open Gemini, start a new chat, attach the photo, then paste the prompt.
You are a beverage brand photographer and art director who shoots lifestyle creative for wine, beer, and spirits brands. I have attached one product photo. Treat the product in that photo as the exact hero product: the bottle or can shape, label artwork, text, and colors must stay identical in every image you create.
My brand:
- Product: [PRODUCT NAME], a [CATEGORY, e.g. dry Albarino, hazy IPA in a 16oz can, small-batch rye whiskey]
- Brand: [BRAND NAME] in [REGION]
- Season I am shooting for: [SEASON, e.g. spring, patio season, holiday]
- Brand look in three words: [BRAND LOOK, e.g. coastal, unfussy, sunlit]
- Brand colors: [BRAND COLORS]
- Customer: [TARGET CUSTOMER, e.g. 32 to 45, cooks at home, buys two bottles at a time]
- Occasions I actually sell into: [THREE OCCASIONS YOU ACTUALLY SELL INTO, e.g. oyster happy hour, Sunday grill, gift-giving]
Step 1. Before generating anything, give me a 12-shot list in a table: shot number, scene, what is in frame besides the product, lighting, mood, and where I would use it (website hero, email header, Instagram feed, Instagram story, Facebook ad, tasting room screen). Cover my three occasions plus food, people's hands, outdoor setting, flat lay, and one shot with no people at all. Push back on any occasion that will not photograph well for this category and tell me why, then suggest a replacement.
Step 2. Wait for me to approve or edit the list. Do not generate images until I say go.
Step 3. Generate the approved shots one at a time, starting with shot 1, and stop after each one so I can approve it. For each image: keep the attached product exactly as it appears, keep label text sharp and readable, use natural light, avoid stock-photo staging and plastic-looking people, and keep my brand colors present in the props or setting. Vary the crop so I get both vertical (4:5 and 9:16) and horizontal (16:9) versions of the shots marked for web and email.
Step 4. After each image, write one line of alt text and one caption of 20 words or less in a plain, unhyped voice that fits [BRAND NAME].
Rules: no fake award medals, no invented vintages, scores, or claims on the label, no text added to the image unless I ask, no health or wellness claims. If a scene would require changing the label, tell me instead of guessing.
Swap these: [PRODUCT NAME], [CATEGORY], [BRAND NAME], [REGION], [SEASON], [BRAND LOOK], [BRAND COLORS], [TARGET CUSTOMER], [THREE OCCASIONS YOU ACTUALLY SELL INTO].
Ask for the shot list first, cut the scenes that do not fit your brand, then have Gemini generate them one at a time so you can correct the label between rounds. Check every image for label text, logo, and fill level before it goes anywhere public.
Download the keepers, drop three into your next email, schedule the rest across the season, and rerun the same chat with a new [SEASON] in 90 days. If you want one of them to move, Gemini video needs a paid Google AI plan, starting with Google AI Plus at $4.99 a month (Pro is $19.99 a month with higher limits; US prices checked October 12, 2026).
Good output looks like your actual bottle in a scene a customer recognizes, with the label legible and the colors matching your site.
Constellation pays $75 million for SpikedAde as distribution deals come apart
Constellation Brands acquired SpikedAde, a vodka-based ready-to-drink brand, announced October 6. Beverage Dynamics reports the transaction includes a $75 million payment at closing for 100% ownership, plus up to $278 million in contingent consideration over five years based on future performance. Constellation said the spirit-based RTD category grew 25% in dollar sales over the past year, and the SpikedAde team moves into its Beer Division.
BevNET reports that Constellation president and CEO Nicholas Fink told investors and analysts the pickup was partly motivated by the company's beer distribution partners. Read that plainly: the buyer bought a brand to give its wholesalers something more to sell.
Icelandic Glacial is ending its master distribution agreement with Anheuser-Busch InBev. BevNET and Brewbound both report the premium bottled water maker, now past $100 million in annual sales, declined to renew a two-decade contract set to expire next summer as it revamps its distribution strategy. Terms of the split were not disclosed.
RNDC remains the backdrop to all of it. VinePair reports the wholesaler went from the second-largest beverage distributor in the country to Chapter 11 bankruptcy in less than two years, and beverage directors interviewed describe supply as harder to keep steady as a result.
Money is still moving toward brands that make a distributor's book easier to sell, and away from agreements that no longer earn their keep. Pull your top five suppliers or wholesalers this week and write down, for each, what you would actually do if that relationship ended in 90 days.
Stop Blaming GLP-1s for Your Volume Decline. The State Data Does Not Back It Up
The case against GLP-1s is strong on its face. Gallup found 11% of U.S. adults were using GLP-1 medications for weight loss in 2026, with 15% having used them at some point. A Health Management Academy survey put roughly 48 million adults as either considering or already using them. And a nine-week study of 48 adults with alcohol use disorder found semaglutide reduced drinks per drinking day, weekly cravings, and heavy drinking against placebo. Fewer hungry people, fewer thirsty people, less beer sold. That is a coherent story, and plenty of boards have accepted it.
The state-level numbers do not cooperate. Matt Gacioch, staff economist for the Brewers Association, compared 2024 state GLP-1 prescription rates against Beer Institute shipments and found no straight line. From 2023 to 2024, the moderate-usage states posted the largest median decline at 2.7%, versus 1.4% in high-usage states and 1.5% in low-usage states. Stretch it to 2025 and the shape holds: down 7.4% in moderate, 6.3% in high, 6.4% in low. Adjusting for population made it worse for the theory. Craft production by state was nearly flat across the three groups, down 4.3%, 4.1%, and 4.2%.
The honest counterargument, which Gacioch makes himself: this does not prove the effect is small. States differ in demographics, income, and drinking habits, and shipments include inventory swings. One cut did lean his way. States with the biggest year-over-year jump in prescription rates saw shipments fall 4.5%, against 3.5% and 3.8% for the other groups. Combined craft volume in the high-usage group fell 11% versus a 3.9% national decline.
So treat GLP-1s as a plausible contributor, not the cause of your problem. Gacioch's more useful point is that the drugs may be shifting what and when people drink rather than how much, toward lighter styles and different occasions.
Pull your last 24 months of SKU-level and daypart sales this week and find out which of your own lines actually slipped. If the decline is concentrated in your heaviest, highest-ABV, highest-price items while lighter formats hold, that is a product and occasion problem you can fix by spring.
You are a beverage category analyst who is skeptical of easy external explanations for sales declines. I run a [winery / brewery / distillery / distribution company / wine and spirits retail shop] in [state or market]. My volume is down [X%] over the last [12 / 24] months and the explanation I keep hearing internally is [GLP-1 drugs / moderation / the economy / younger drinkers not drinking].
Here is what I can give you: [paste or describe your SKU-level volume by month, by package size, by price tier, by channel (tasting room, club, on-premise, off-premise, ecommerce), and by daypart if you have it].
Do this:
1. Decompose the decline. Tell me how much of it comes from fewer transactions, smaller baskets, lost accounts or members, price changes, and distribution losses. Show the math.
2. Test the external story. If moderation or GLP-1 use were the main driver, what pattern would you expect in my data (for example, lighter styles and smaller formats holding while high-ABV and large-format items fall faster)? Tell me whether my numbers match that pattern or not.
3. List the internal causes that fit my data better, ranked by how much volume they explain. Be blunt if the answer is that I lost placements, raised prices too fast, or stopped acquiring new customers.
4. Give me three tests I can run in the next 60 days that would confirm or kill the top cause. Each test needs a cost, an owner, and a number that tells me it worked.
5. Name the one thing I am likely to keep blaming that the data does not support.
If my data is too thin to answer a question, say so and tell me exactly which report to pull next. Do not pad the answer with industry trend commentary I cannot act on. If any recommendation would take more than a quarter to execute, give me a smaller version I can start this month.
From the Editor:
I am always open to consulting, implementation, or brainstorming sessions. Just respond to this email, and I will get back to you shortly.
Alcohol Industry Insider Newsletter: the three-times-a-week growth newsletter for wine, beer, and spirits businesses that need smarter marketing, better sales, practical AI tools, and clear ideas they can implement now.
By Jeremy Young: serial entrepreneur, growth marketer, wine critic, and beverage industry insider.
Respond to this email with questions, ideas, or opportunities, and I will get back to you shortly!
Until next time,
Jeremy
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