Wrong Take · Oct 16, 2026
Stop Blaming GLP-1s for Your Volume Decline. The State Data Does Not Back It Up
Pinning falling volume on weight-loss drugs makes it someone else's fault and buys you another quarter of doing nothing. Brewers Association data shows no clean link between state GLP-1 use and beer declines, which puts the cause back where you can act on it: your pricing, your occasions, and your acquisition.
The case against GLP-1s is strong on its face. Gallup found 11% of U.S. adults were using GLP-1 medications for weight loss in 2026, with 15% having used them at some point. A Health Management Academy survey put roughly 48 million adults as either considering or already using them. And a nine-week study of 48 adults with alcohol use disorder found semaglutide reduced drinks per drinking day, weekly cravings, and heavy drinking against placebo. Fewer hungry people, fewer thirsty people, less beer sold. That is a coherent story, and plenty of boards have accepted it.
The state-level numbers do not cooperate. Matt Gacioch, staff economist for the Brewers Association, compared 2024 state GLP-1 prescription rates against Beer Institute shipments and found no straight line. From 2023 to 2024, the moderate-usage states posted the largest median decline at 2.7%, versus 1.4% in high-usage states and 1.5% in low-usage states. Stretch it to 2025 and the shape holds: down 7.4% in moderate, 6.3% in high, 6.4% in low. Adjusting for population made it worse for the theory. Craft production by state was nearly flat across the three groups, down 4.3%, 4.1%, and 4.2%.
The honest counterargument, which Gacioch makes himself: this does not prove the effect is small. States differ in demographics, income, and drinking habits, and shipments include inventory swings. One cut did lean his way. States with the biggest year-over-year jump in prescription rates saw shipments fall 4.5%, against 3.5% and 3.8% for the other groups. Combined craft volume in the high-usage group fell 11% versus a 3.9% national decline.
So treat GLP-1s as a plausible contributor, not the cause of your problem. Gacioch's more useful point is that the drugs may be shifting what and when people drink rather than how much, toward lighter styles and different occasions.
Pull your last 24 months of SKU-level and daypart sales this week and find out which of your own lines actually slipped. If the decline is concentrated in your heaviest, highest-ABV, highest-price items while lighter formats hold, that is a product and occasion problem you can fix by spring.