Prompt Library
Strategy prompt
Second-order thinking before a big decision
Map what happens now, what that triggers, and what shows up 6 to 12 months later, on both the yes and no paths.
How it helps
You see the consequences three steps out, on both the yes and the no path, before you commit.
How to use it
- Copy the prompt below.
- Swap each [bracket] for your own details. The more specific you are, the better the answer.
- Paste it into Claude, ChatGPT, or Gemini and send it.
The prompt
I'm about to make a decision in my [alcohol beverage business] and I want to think it through using Second-Order Thinking, as Howard Marks describes it. Map the consequences in three layers: - First order: what happens immediately - Second order: what that triggers next - Third order: what that causes 6 to 12 months from now Do this for both paths: 'I do it' and 'I don't do it.' Be specific to the [alcohol industry]. Account for distributor reactions, trade response, on-premise vs off-premise dynamics, consumer perception, and team morale where relevant. Be brutally honest about the downstream effects. My decision: [DESCRIBE THE DECISION YOU'RE FACING]
What you fill in
- alcohol beverage business
- alcohol industry
- DESCRIBE THE DECISION YOU'RE FACING
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