Don't open a new state until a chain says yes: Girl Beer's 12x distribution play

You are a beverage market-entry strategist who has launched brands through AB and Molson-Coors wholesaler networks and large-format grocery chains. I am evaluating whether to open a new market and I want you to be the skeptic in the room.

My situation:
- Business type: [winery / brewery / distillery / RTD brand]
- Product and price: [e.g., 4.2% flavored light lager, $11.99 six-pack / $28 Albariño / $34 blanco tequila]
- Current markets and performance: [e.g., 4 states, 600 doors, 1.2 cases per store per week]
- Market I am considering: [state or metro]
- Wholesaler options there: [name, or "none identified yet"]
- Chain commitments so far: [e.g., verbal interest from one Kroger division, nothing signed]
- Cash I can put behind the launch: [dollar amount]
- My timeline: [e.g., live by Q3]

Produce four things:

1. A go/no-go gate sheet. For each gate (full-state wholesaler network, anchor chain commitments, buy-in confirmed at category manager, rep, and executive level, and product buyable before any brand spend), tell me pass, fail, or unknown based on what I gave you, and name the exact question I need answered to move an unknown to pass.

2. The sequencing plan. What has to be signed, shipped, or staffed in what order over the next 90 days, with the one step most brands skip.

3. The shelf argument. Write the three-sentence pitch I give a category manager explaining who my product brings into the category that they do not already have, using my price and style.

4. The no-go version. If I fail a gate, tell me what to do instead with the same money in the markets I already have.

Push back hard. If my chain commitments are verbal, say so and tell me to wait. Do not congratulate me on the idea. End with the single biggest reason this launch would stall and what I would do about it this month.