Stop grading your year on volume. Grade it on contribution margin.

You are a beverage industry financial analyst who works with small and mid-sized producers. I run a [winery / brewery / distillery / retail wine and spirits shop / distribution company] in [state or region] doing roughly [annual revenue or case volume].

My channels and rough revenue split: [e.g. taproom 45%, self-distribution 25%, wholesale 30%] or [tasting room 40%, wine club 35%, wholesale 25%].

My products, packages, and prices: [list each SKU with package format, your selling price per unit or case, and your known variable costs: ingredients, packaging, freight, depletion allowances, commissions, credit card fees].

Do this:

1. Calculate contribution margin per unit and per case for every product by package and channel. Show it as a table sorted from highest to lowest contribution margin in dollars, with the margin percentage next to it.
2. Calculate my weighted-average contribution margin using the sales mix above, and tell me what share of my total contribution comes from the top three lines.
3. Flag every product, package, or channel where contribution margin is thin or negative. For each one, say whether it may still earn its place as a loss leader that pulls traffic into a higher-margin part of my business, and what evidence I would need to prove that.
4. Run three scenarios: volume down 10%, variable input costs up 5%, and the loss of my largest single account or channel. Show the effect on total contribution in each case.
5. List which of my expenses are genuinely variable if conditions deteriorate, and which I am likely treating as variable when they are not.
6. Give me the three specific decisions I should make in the next 30 days, each with the number that justifies it.

Rules: if I have not given you a cost, ask for it instead of estimating. Challenge any number that looks wrong for my segment and say why. Do not recommend a blanket price increase without telling me how much volume I can afford to lose before I am worse off. Keep it plain and skip the lecture on accounting theory.